Over at Talking Points Memo, Eric Kleefield may have just found the needle in the statistical haystack that could explain why McCain suddenly leads among "likely voters": They hate foreigners, especially Europeans.
Gallup pollster Frank Newport speculates that for his poll, Republicans are listing themselves as likely voters in greater numbers because of all the press coverage surrounding Obama's overseas trip and the crowds welcoming him in Europe: "At least in the short term it may have had the side effect of energizing Republicans."
For the past seven years since 911 I have debating with myelf why Republicans are so much more likley to be afraid of and/or loathe the outside world. Do people call themselves Republicans because they are afraid, or are they afraid because they are Republicans, and need to validate what their leaders tell them. If Gallup is correct, what we are witnessing among GOP voters is an emotional need to maintain the same posture vis a vis Europe that we have for the past 8 years. If Bush did not get along with Europe then we damn well better not support someone who does. It is also possible that they are resentful that people are flocking to this new guy after scorning our glorious president. So, if Gallup is right expect 2 things over the next couple of weeks:
1. McCain's numbers will drop and Obama's will rise.
2. More xenophobia from the Republicans.
This is July, not September. The Olympics are coming along with more bad mortgage and economic news. And whatever steam McCain may have gathered from out the ears of Republican voters will fade away.
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