State of the Election

by RAULC, Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:01:10 PM EST

In a close election I figure McCain will have to win the following dead heat states: VA, OH, COL, NEV and FL. Fl and VA may well go R due to historical leanings though the $ spent in FL and the rapidly changing demos of VA may alter that. Note to O- Kaine will abolutely have no impact in the state. OH truly is tight- the economy vs. the Bradley effect. Appalachia vs. Illinois influence- and frankly, the OH voter is as unpredictable as their thinking. OH was one of the few states that Bush did worse last election. Is this a trend? However, the dimwit voters may confuse McCain with McKinley. For now, I say OH is R despite same day registrations voting day.  COL looks like it has all the indications of being D. The negatives are that it is an evangelical and military state. The positives, everything else is D. The convention may swing the state; and if not the water issue will certainly will.  I say this is O's firewall. NV should also go O because of unionization and GOTV efforts. This last two states are two D trending states that may benefit with a good VP selection. If it is a VA pick, I hope it is a Webb, who may actually swing the state, unlike Kaine, and that way Kaine can appoint the replacement and thereby keeping the senate seat in D hands.    




Tags: Obama, Colorado (all tags)

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Re: State of the Election (none / 0)

You have to give McCain a real shot in Michigan if he picks Romney.  Plus Obama's buddy Kwame isn't helpin' him any.

Couldn't Obama's people made sure Kwame stayed put in Detroit?   Do they really want him at the convention supporting Obama?

At any rate, if McCain pulls off Michigan that is a huge game changer and Colorado and Nevada won't fix that.  


by RichardFlatts on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:12:57 PM EST

Re: State of the Election (2.00 / 1)

Why is Kwame Obama's buddy?  Do they have a relationship?  Or is it that you fear voters will associate them because of some other superficial factor?


The future is unwritten
by Strummerson on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:23:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: State of the Election (2.00 / 1)

 And what superficial factor could that be? Does Kwame also have a funny middle name?


"But not me personally were those cheers for"
by QTG on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:47:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Because Obama says it is so (none / 0)

Obama (speaking w/ Kilpatrick and praising him): "We know that he is going to be doing astounding things for many years to come. And I'm grateful to call him a friend and a colleague. And I'm looking forward to a lengthy collaboration in terms of making sure that Detroit does well in the future."


by RichardFlatts on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:47:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And the race card is played... (none / 0)

and OOOO man look at that, there's quotes from Obama about Kwame.

Oh wait, check it out! Kwame went on Cable news to bat for Obama re: Michigan.

Oh wait! he was also part of Obama's Michigan team!!!!!!!

superficial.


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 02:45:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And the race card is played... (none / 0)

Oh please.  Just party politics.  The comment I responded to made it seem like they were personally linked.  These quotes don't make any connection of the sort and, unless you are the most politically naive blog participant ever, you're just spinning.  On the other hand, I know exactly who will be trying to make this association here in MI in the fall, and he has no connection with the democratic party.


The future is unwritten
by Strummerson on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 04:17:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Kwame was (none / 0)

Obama's point person in Michigan. Were you around during the primary?

Oh my i am so naive! Woe unto me!


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Thu Aug 21, 2008 at 09:47:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kwame was (none / 0)

Yes.  I've lived in Ann Arbor for 6 years now.  I don't know what you mean by point person.  Sure, he participated.  But they are hardly 'buddies' in the sense of personal friends or close colleagues.  To infer that from K's support and participation (along with a lot of people around here) that tis represents a morally or politically significant relationship that says anything about Obama seems, um, yes, quite naive.

Sure, it will be incorporated into the McKitchen Sink they are throwing.  But I am loathe to validate it by trucking in the same facile logic.


The future is unwritten
by Strummerson on Thu Aug 21, 2008 at 10:17:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kwame was (none / 0)

if you want to think that Kwame will not have any impact on Obama's chances in Michigan, then that in itself is naive.

You dont have to hang out to be "buddies" in politics.

Just because you dont want to validate that it is part of politics doesnt mean that it isnt.

Get over yourself.


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Thu Aug 21, 2008 at 10:58:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Kwame was (none / 0)

I do think that they will try to link Obama and Kwame, particularly in Macomb county and in the UP.   And if you think that race does not play a role in that, then you've got a truckload of whoppingly naive self to 'get over.'   And they, like you, will scream 'race card' to deflect the charge of race-baiting.  Just like they have already done.  

My point is that we should be making that link less credible, not more.  Calling them buddies, or even thinking like that, plays into their hand.  And no, I do not think that the extent of their relationship qualifies them as 'buddies' politically or otherwise.  Using that term specifically serves their strategy, for it implies that political cooperation equates to friendship, and thus the character of one reflects on the other.  That's how it works.

I am now done.  Take the last work if you want.  Have a great day.


The future is unwritten
by Strummerson on Fri Aug 22, 2008 at 09:34:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

your point (none / 0)

and what the poster said are two different things.

He was talking about their relationship during the primary season, Kwame being a surrogate on national msm.

You brought in the "superficial" aspect.

Now you may be overly sensitive to the use of race, and the repugs trying to link one black guy with another (on the sole basis of race), but the fact still is that Kwame isnt going to be helpful to Obama in shoring up any votes.

He dug himself in, and he wont be able to be used anymore, just Like Edwards wont be able to be used in areas where he was useful, and how Ted Stevens wont be able to be used by McCain for Alaska.

The comment was simply pointing out that Kwame cant be used anymore.


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Fri Aug 22, 2008 at 01:42:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: your point (none / 0)

Okay.  I'm going back on my word, as your last response actually points out a difference in how we read the poster.  Perhaps we can clarify the dispute between us.  That's more interesting to me.

The poster in question wrote: "Obama's buddy Kwame isn't helpin' him any."

I understand "isn't helpin'" in this context as hurting, and that the association will hurt.  You seem to understand this as simply indicating that Obama has lost an influential ally here for the GE.  

My point is that I expect the republicans to play up this association, which I see as signifying nothing about Obama's character or credibility.  They will do so, in part, through their shared race (though not explicitly) and to play on racial discomfort.  I fully expect them to race bait.  They always have and they always will.  Since the OJ trial, the accusation of 'playing the race card' has been used to neutralize opposition to race baiting and to facilitate it.  This is something we need to be prepared to confront.  I was troubled by your eagerness to participate in that strategy.  

I agree that the 'race card' can be played as OJ's defense team did, unfairly and for the sake of obfuscation.  But I think that more often, the accusation of doing so is merely an avenue for white resentment and to play on unconscious or semi-conscious racialized attitudes.  This has clearly been complicated by the way race informed the primary.  Obama supporters tend to think that the Clintons race-baited; Clinton supporters are equally convinced that Obama 'played the race card.'  Whether Clinton supporters are right or not, and I am loathe to rehearse the particulars of that debate, this lends credibility now to McCain using the same argument.

I think it's overwhelmingly clear at this point that McCain's folks are willing to play on race, while using the 'race card' accusation to protect their deniability.  Furthermore, I think we need to be on guard and ready to confront this.

Regardless of our dispute regarding how to read the previous poster's comment, I hope we can see eye to eye on the larger point.


The future is unwritten
by Strummerson on Fri Aug 22, 2008 at 02:04:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

i agree (2.00 / 1)

that we have to do everything we can to hit back against GOP slime.

Glad the miscommunication is cleared up and look forward to attacking repugs with u


vote blue in 2008
by sepulvedaj3 on Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 02:05:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: State of the Election (none / 0)

I posted a very similar diary yesterday.  My conclusion:  It all comes down to CO this year.


by the mollusk on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 12:57:35 PM EST

Re: State of the Election (none / 0)

Just read your post - pretty good- you even good JA to post. We all agree then that CO is the state. (I actually said this in another diary a month ago). It would be nice to get someone in the ground to report from there. As to the some of the Great Lakes being in contention? I really have not seen anything that makes believe it- yes the polling is tight but not unusual.  Something interesting about the polling- O swings more than Mc who seems to have a cap. I think voters are still learning about O.    


by RAULC on Wed Aug 20, 2008 at 01:10:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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