MyDD :: No, Arizona Is Not Competitive

No, Arizona Is Not Competitive

by RandyMI, Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 05:32:02 PM EST

I am one of those optimistic people who believe that Barack Obama can alter the electoral map to some extent. John McCain's money expenditures in Virginia are living proof. But for those among us who think, or want to think, that all 50 states are in play, the state of Arizona offers a dose of cold water on that notion as the latest poll gives MCain a clear and comfprtable lead there.

There's been some recent indications that Sen. John McCain may be in trouble in his home state of Arizona, but a new Public Policy Polling survey suggests he's safe. McCain leads Sen. Barack Obama, 52% to 40%.

Key findings: "There are a few things helping McCain to do well in his home state. He trails Barack Obama only 48-40 among Latino voters, a performance much better than national polling is showing with that demographic. He's also getting more crossover support than Obama, with 16% of the Democratic vote, while holding almost everyone in his own party, earning 87% of the Republican vote."

I would also add Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia and Utah to that list among others. So when you see polls from these state showing McCain ahead there, don't fret. There are places that just won't move. But rest assured, there are plenty that may.

Tags: Arizona (all tags)

Permalink :: 10 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: No, Arizona Is Not Competitive (none / 0)

Rasmussen has Mccain up 16 in Arizona.

I do not believe there would be any significant realignment .

I expect Obama to win in a squeaker both in the popular and electoral college.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 05:38:25 PM EST

Re: No, Arizona Is Not Competitive (none / 0)

He's also getting more crossover support than Obama, with 16% of the Democratic vote, while holding almost everyone in his own party, earning 87% of the Republican vote."

Who wrote this? 84-16, vs. 87-13. Statistically significant? And in McCain's home state no less?

This is a damn good poll for Obama. McCain should be up 30% in Arizona the way Obama is up 30% in Illinois. McCain doesn't have a chance of holding states like Colorado and Nevada if he is only up 12 in Arizona.

by Skaje on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 06:08:48 PM EST

Re: No, Arizona Is Not Competitive (2.00 / 1)

Obama's up by 15.3 in Illinois according to fivethirtyeight's analysis, not 30. The highest poll in their survey has him at 20.

But I do find the first point hilarious. It's a classic statistical switch.

by TCQuad on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 07:26:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No, Arizona Is Not Competitive (2.00 / 1)

For AZ to flip, it would have to be a landslide.

I still think that GA could flip, under the right circumstances: Barr gets 9%, and AA turnout goes way up. Unlikely, sure, but not impossible.

by NewOaklandDem on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 06:17:05 PM EST

Re: No, Arizona Is Not Competitive (none / 0)

I'd like to see a poll with the third party candidates included. Bob Barr is pretty popular out west.

Dare to be free.

by misscee on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 06:27:57 PM EST

AZ not in play? (none / 0)

Then I wonder why McDesperate has been running ads on local TV stations?

by Glaurung on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 06:32:25 PM EST

Re: No, Arizona Is Not Competitive (none / 0)

Broken record alert:

This year's swing states are NH, IA, CO, NM. Obama seems to be doing acceptably well in all of these.

by the mollusk on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 06:45:11 PM EST

Re: No, Arizona Is Not Competitive (none / 0)

Actually you have just two swing states in there ,

NH , CO .

And NH won't be deciding the election.

The states that would decide the election in my view includes ,

OH , VA , CO , NV ,and MI .

States to watch include FL , IN , PA . However I believe these states would vote like they voted in 04.

Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.

by lori on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 07:05:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No, Arizona Is Not Competitive (none / 0)

Hey...
The Obama campaign is in play in all 50 States...
The money McCain has had to pour into Colorado so far is amazing...
Remember...after his nomination McCain is limited to money spent....
McCain will have to put more money into AZ than Obama will have to put into IL.

So not discount the strength of Mormons in AZ.
They loved their Mitt....and hates their McCain.

"harlequin speech of suicide, demanding instantaneous lobotomy"

by nogo postal on Mon Aug 04, 2008 at 07:20:15 PM EST

Re: The Only Alignment is in your mind (none / 0)

There will be No Re-Alignment.

Only Axelrod & the Die Hard Obamamaniacs are praying for one.

You get what you deserve.

If Obama somehow goes down in defeat in November, this would go down as historical. It would go down as the Worst Missed Opportunity of a Major political party in U.S. History.

No amount of money & ads can buy american voters.

Obama is outspending Obama by 4 to 1, and he is struggling bigtime.

While our brothers & sisters in the House & Senate are celebrating the expected landslide victory in congress.

I have no regrets. This is a Good Lesson & a Good Spanking for the Democratic base. This is the only way.

For the country's sake, I hope Obama wins.

The Media will really have to go all out & pretty much destroy McCain. They will have to treat Mac worse the Hillary. Or Obama will be the biggest disappointment in modern dem politics.

by labanman on Tue Aug 05, 2008 at 01:50:16 AM EST

You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.